...on the verge of democracy

Since the maoist government stepped down in Maj, there has been a political deadlock in Nepal. The maoist have been physically blocking the parliament and UML and especially Congress have been using more time on internal power-struggle, than on trying to rule the country.

In July everybody thought that the maoists where opening a bit for the possibility of letting the parliament work, as they accepted the passing of the "program and politics" bill, which included the first 3 month of the fiscal budget.

But now. Now the budget is running out (the government do not have more money to pay the state employees), as are maoists' patient and the festival season is over so it's time for renewed struggles.

An this time it seems like it is for worse.

The problem is that the Maoists are physically blocking the voting of the parliament, so even though the government has a majority, they are not able to use it and vote for the budget.

Baburam Batterai (former finansminister from maoist) have given the government til Friday (Okt 30) to..... Well it's not completely clear to do what, but UML, Congress and the Maoists are having high-level talks these days, but neither of the parties seems optimistic.

The coming days could very well be the most important time during the time of the interim constitution. The maoists have announced a big protest program for the next two weeks, including "picketing" the local governments, blocking the government buildings, closing air traffic in and out of Kathmandu and the formation of autonomous provinces.

There are a few possible outcomes of the present development of the conflict:
- UML, Congress and the Maoists reach a common agreement and form a consensus government
- UML and Congress finds a way to pass the budget, and everything continues "as usual"
- The Maoists backs down, and allows the passing of the budget (but not other legislating)
- The government uses force against the Maoists (for instance by letting the police ensure voting in the parliament) and by that provokes them and gives the militant wing and excuse to start another armed revolt.

The situation is getting more hostile, as a Congress leader was killed in eastern Nepal some days ago (the suspects are from former Maoists rebels in on of the cantonments) and as Deuba (former PM) and Gagan Thapa was violently attacked by a Maoist mop on Wednesday.

It seems unlikely that there is room for consensus at the moment, and the maoist have probably never been in a stronger position from a military point of view as the national army is very weak, so the big question remaining is whether the militant wing, led by Kiran, can resist the temptation to step away from the "Prachanda Path" mobilize the 20.000 former rebel soldiers in the cantonments and the 300.000 members of the youth wing YCL, and make an easy run for Kathmandu and the supreme rule.