...on the verge of democracy

Since the maoist government stepped down in Maj, there has been a political deadlock in Nepal. The maoist have been physically blocking the parliament and UML and especially Congress have been using more time on internal power-struggle, than on trying to rule the country.

In July everybody thought that the maoists where opening a bit for the possibility of letting the parliament work, as they accepted the passing of the "program and politics" bill, which included the first 3 month of the fiscal budget.

But now. Now the budget is running out (the government do not have more money to pay the state employees), as are maoists' patient and the festival season is over so it's time for renewed struggles.

An this time it seems like it is for worse.

The problem is that the Maoists are physically blocking the voting of the parliament, so even though the government has a majority, they are not able to use it and vote for the budget.

Baburam Batterai (former finansminister from maoist) have given the government til Friday (Okt 30) to..... Well it's not completely clear to do what, but UML, Congress and the Maoists are having high-level talks these days, but neither of the parties seems optimistic.

The coming days could very well be the most important time during the time of the interim constitution. The maoists have announced a big protest program for the next two weeks, including "picketing" the local governments, blocking the government buildings, closing air traffic in and out of Kathmandu and the formation of autonomous provinces.

There are a few possible outcomes of the present development of the conflict:
- UML, Congress and the Maoists reach a common agreement and form a consensus government
- UML and Congress finds a way to pass the budget, and everything continues "as usual"
- The Maoists backs down, and allows the passing of the budget (but not other legislating)
- The government uses force against the Maoists (for instance by letting the police ensure voting in the parliament) and by that provokes them and gives the militant wing and excuse to start another armed revolt.

The situation is getting more hostile, as a Congress leader was killed in eastern Nepal some days ago (the suspects are from former Maoists rebels in on of the cantonments) and as Deuba (former PM) and Gagan Thapa was violently attacked by a Maoist mop on Wednesday.

It seems unlikely that there is room for consensus at the moment, and the maoist have probably never been in a stronger position from a military point of view as the national army is very weak, so the big question remaining is whether the militant wing, led by Kiran, can resist the temptation to step away from the "Prachanda Path" mobilize the 20.000 former rebel soldiers in the cantonments and the 300.000 members of the youth wing YCL, and make an easy run for Kathmandu and the supreme rule.

"Last year I was in the queue for 6 hours in the sun, but I was so proud to cast my vote. Next time I'm not gonna vote at all." This was the discouraging message from a guy I talked to last week about whether there is any hope that the politician will stop their power struggle and start caring for the people.

This guy used to work in Dubai in a hotel for 4 years, but was very eager to come back to his country and his family. But now he is thinking of leaving again and told me that he already talked to the hotel he worked for, and they have a job for him if he wants. He is so disappointed about the lack of possibilities and the deadlock of, not only the political scene, but the whole country.

Finally I asked him if he could think of any way of the political morass Nepal is in. ”Musharaf” he said “a man like Musharaf and 5 years of strong rule”. I didn’t believe that a man who a little more than 2 year ago experienced the first truly free election of the country could say this, but still I can’t help understanding his urge for order and progress. “Let’s have a strong man, and just give him 5 years” he said, “all the others should shut up meanwhile, and then after 5 years, they can say their opinion again”.

This is the challenge the Nepali politicians are facing right now. They struggled for democracy and got it, but if they can’t cease their struggle, they might loose it again.

Whether the change in the monsoon with less rain and a number of vey dry winters in South Asia are due to climate change, can probably still be a subject of discussions. What shouldn't be up for discussions is the fact that this weather pattern is close to the predictions of how it's going to change, and therefore it can be used as a prediction of what is to come.

Yesterday a taxi driver told me that the absence of monsoon, was an effect of the chinese spraying chemicals in the clouds to make sure that there was no rain during the OL in Beijing. Some people believe that the monsoon has been waiting for today's solar eclipse. But apart from that, most people (an especially farmers) do not doubt that something in the weather patterns have been changing during the last years.

In Nepal the monsoon normally reach it's peak in mid July. This year we have untill now got about 1/3 of the normal amount of rain, which is serious threat to stability in the country, as food will be scarce after the winter and as the hydroplants will not be able to produce enough electricity. This comes on top of a year where 41 out of 75 districts where facing food shortage and where the load shedding was up to 2 times 8 hours a day.

With even less power, the last industries might move to India, leaving more people without job. The streets and roads of Nepal are already filled with young men with nothing to do and nothing to loose, covering their frustration behind political banners and burning tires. Less jobs and less food could be the spark that fires hot Terai (the lowland towards India) and provokes an greater ethnic conflict than the one we saw in 2006 in Kabilvastu.

In this light it seems tremendously irresponsible that the government has just presented their budget without allocating anything for reducing the hunger everyone knows will come. There is a need for immediate actions to prevent the worst outcomes of the coming food shortage, and the government and the international donors need to adress the long term issues and prepare Nepal for what is to come. For instance by making more bare land farmable and changing the main crop from the very water dependent rice, to a more drought resistance type.

And then we didn't even talk about the fact that the snow in the Himalayas are melting very fast, and creating glacier lakes that, when they burst, will create floods and heavy erosion.

On July 7. it is former king Gyanandra's 63 years birthday. The event will be celebrated during a three day festival all over Kathmandu, and people close to the former king has suggested that this is part of a campaign to reinstate the monarchy.

Yesterday - July 1. - I was interview for Orientering in Danish Radio, and among other things we talked about this issue. My comment was that this is not likely possible; either the parliament has to reinstate him by 2/3, or he has to stage a military coup with an army that is divided over the issue and facing 20.000 armed maoist rebels in the cantonments and more than 300.000 YCL members all over the country. The question remaining is whether he would be reckless enough to try - hoping for the implausible support of the people.

Listen to the radio interview (in Danish)
Three years ago, Nepal's king was removed from his post by the parliament. Since then he has lived in a little bungalow up in the mountains. Now reports suggests that former King has not only used the time to enjoy the view over the Himalayan mountains, but that he is preparing a political comeback based on the uncertain situation of the democracy as it is now.

Nepal's Maoist Prime Minister Prachandra recently withdrew his party out of government. He did this because the president would not accept that the government was trying to fire the Army Chief. And the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, has recently been plagued by unrest and strikes.

Wikipedea about Gyanandra

The Nepali entry to the US State department's Democracy Challenge won as the best film from Asea - congratulations! It is well deserved.

The film was made by Tsering Choden, and is very talented - please watch it.

(earlier blog about the film)

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote "A new chance for democracy". It seems like I couldn't have been more wrong....

Ever since things has gone from bad to worse in Nepali politics:

- The Madeshi People Right Forum has been split into two. The Gongress-faction that supports the government, and Maoist-faction that doesn't.
- The maoist are calling for Bandha daily
- Different groups (Newar, different Tharu groups, Maoist dalits, MJF, Nepal backwards class federation, Maoist in Palpa and even UML) are declaring Bandhas every day now.
- The relationship with India is worsening as a lot of Indian trucks are being blocked from entering Nepal.
- At a Maoist rally near Kathmandu, a leading cadre said that the Maoists would soon take up arms again - not the ones they have locked up in the cantonments, but the ones "we have at home".

On top of this, Madhev Kumar Nepal seems to have trouble putting together a government and getting the parties to agree on a cabinet. At the moment the different parties are fighting for the minister seats, instead of starting their work.

I hope I'm also wrong with this blog. Madhev Kumar Nepal might just prove to be the right person for office - or he might get between 3 to 6 months as expected by a lot of people...

In early May the Maoist led government was dissolved in Nepal, and many feared chaos and violent riots. But it looks like the crisis in Nepal has passed, and that democracy will have another chance.

After 3 weeks without a government, a new government was formed on May 24, and a change was made in the Prime Minister’s resident. Out moved the former Maoist rebel leader Prachanda (his nom-de-guerre: "furious") and in moved a man named Nepal who is not even elected to parliament. He comes from parliament's second largest party, the Communists, and will try to lead the country and a coalition government consisting of 22 parties.

After the 10-year civil war ended in 2006, after the free elections in the spring of 2008 there was great optimism in Nepal. Today, optimism is replaced by a general pessimism and little faith in politicians. Many had a great hope that the Maoist led government would bring the prosperity that is so desperately needed.

A surprisingly peaceful crisis

Many feared that Maoist militant rhetoric would be implemented in the form of blockades and political violence. There have been a few cases in some of the Maoist strongholds around the country, but on the whole, the transition to opposition process quite peaceful.

As the largest Maoist demonstration was held in Kathmandu and other major cities in Nepal on May 17, it was clear that there would be formed a new government without the Maoists 38% of parliament. It was a great fear that the demonstrations would be used as an momentum for a new violent uprising, but in Prachanda’s speech he emphasized that this is not the time to turn to violence.

With democracy at stake

That the Maoists seem to stay on the democratic path is one of the few bright spots in the current situation. If Prachanda succeeds in holding the party together as a peaceful opposition party, it would be a huge success for the peace process. If it on the other hand doesn’t work, the consequences will be unthinkable, and experience from similar peace processes elsewhere in the world shows that it is a fragile process that can easily end up in a return to violent situations.

The new Prime Minister, Madhav Kumar Nepal, might have gotten the job of his dreams. But whether he can handle the task, the next few months will tell. As leader of the 18 Government in 19 years, he is facing the challenge of making the public regain trust in the political system. He will only succeed if he can convince the people of Nepal that politicians can solve everyday problems such as access to electricity, water, education and infrastructure. In addition, Nepal's first constitution after the monarchy's abolition has to be completed in 2010.

Democracy has been given a second chance in Nepal and hopefully the many Maoist supporters in the country will follow Prachanda’s call to go by peaceful means.

The Nepali filmmaker Tsering Choden has made a very fine short film about democracy. The 3 minute long film is a part of the "Democracy Challenge", where the participants got the assignment of finishing the sentence "Democracy is..." in a just 3 minute long video.

Choden's film was chosen as one of the 18 finalist among more than 900 entries from 95 countries. The votes from viewers, will decide which 6 films (one from each region of the world) will win. The voting finishes on June 15th.

The contest has been initiated by the US Secretary of State, and the 6 winners will get a trip wo Washington, New York and Hollywood.

All the videos can be seen at www.youtube.com/democracychallenge, where you can also vote for your favorite.

An interview with Tsering Choden can be read at Republica

Commentary printed in the Danish newspaper "Information" - May 13 2009.

The government's resignation in Nepal has thrown the country into a crisis that could put the fragile peace process to a standstill and that is a serious threat to the frail democracy. The question is whether the civil war really is over, or whether it simply continued in parliament.

Read the whole article (in Danish)

There was a mistake in one of my earlier blogs, about the deadline this saturday to form a government. I wrote that if there where no majority government after this, the Maoists would be asked to form a government as the largest party. This is not what has happened, because the deadline apparently was to form a consensus government, and as this has not happened, president Yadav has called for a second round and this time it's for making a majority government. He hasn't given any deadline though.

There should be a majority for a UML led government, if UML can make up their minds as who within their party they want for Prime Minister! But at the moment it will be a bit difficult to appoint the government by votes from the Constituent Assembly, as the Maoist members are making "street rallies" inside the Assembly whenever they meet to block the work. It's working quite well so far.

Did we just get to know the true plan of the Maoists, or was it just political rhetoric.

Last night a video of Prime Minister Prachanda making a speech in front of former rebels where released on a national television channel, and soon after it was on youtube.

In the video Prachanda addresses a large group of former rebels in one of the UN-supervised cantonments that was made after the peace agreement. Around 20.000 soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army, still live in these camps and their integration in the National Army was a main part of the dispute with Chief of Army Staff Katawal, that led to the current crises.

In the speech Prachanda tells his cadres that “We all know what the real strength of the PLA is. It is between 7,000 and 8,000. Had we given the real figure, the number would have come down to about 4,000. But the party said the number of the PLA was 35,000 and that resulted in around 20,000 verified PLA.”

Prachanda also said that the party had not given up their ultimate goal of a revolution, and that the plan was to infiltrate the National Army. Prachanda says he believes the political trained cadres from PLA would be dominating the National Army after the integration. He added that Chief of Army Staff Katawal was very aware of this, and therefore against the integration.

The speech was made in Shaktikhor cantonment in Chitwan on January 2, 2008, which was just 3 months before the election for the Constituent Assembly, and Prachanda promised the listeners that the party should only allow the election to take place if they where sure to win. The Maoist got 38% at the election, and became surprisingly the largest party.

Today the Maoist spokesman have claimed that Prachanda only said these things to appease the cadres. Whether this is the truth is of course difficult to says, but if so Prachanda has at least been lying to his own people, and he will face a difficult time. It seems like the internal power struggle within the Maoists have started again.

It’s quite certain that president Yadav was aware of this video, before he made the decision to overrule the PM’s firing of Katawal. So at least somebody seems to believe Prachanda’s words.

Today was another unexpected quiet day in the capital of Nepal. There where demonstrations of course, and at least some 40 people where arrested. But it much less than feared.

By afternoon yesterday everybody where scared that there would be a curfew and that internet and telephone lines would be cut off. And of course the worst fear is that the People's Liberation Army would go from high-alert to fire-at-will. On sunday the National Army was put on high alert, and the city of Kathmandu where overflown by military aircrafts for a couple of hours, and at the same time the maoist leaders told their army, PLA, to be on high alert as well. The around 20.000 ex-rebels in the PLA are still living in the 17 camps around Nepal, that they where put in when the peace agreement where signed 3 years ago. So we have a lot of young men, walking around in camps they are not really allowed to leave, just waiting for something to do...

Armed police waiting on Durbar Margh (photo: Rasmus Holm)

But the day has been a day of politics so far. UML has called for a meeting between all the parties in the parliament to appoint a new prime minister. The Nepali Congress have said that they are pointing to UML to lead the government. But Madeshi People's Right Forum, which have the decisive votes, have said that they will support anyone for government, as long as their leader Upendra Yadav is appointed Prime Minister. This seems more than unlikely. But the parties will have to find a majority for a new government this week, otherwise the Maoists will remain in office according to the constitution.

Today was another dramatic day in Nepali politics, and with the withdrawal of the maoists from the government, everybody expected hell to break out. Or at least violent rallies. But nothing happened, apart from a few tyre burnings.

Most people can't imagine a peaceful maoist party in opposition. They might not take up arms again and start a new civil war, but at least you can expect them to arrange rallies and blockades to make it hard for anybody else to govern. But the maoist themselves have declared that they will take the decision about firing Chief of Army Staff Katawal, to the supreme court. This is a good sign, as it is the most proper constitutional solution to the disagreement.

But the real problem now is no longer whether to fire Katawal or not, but who will actually govern the country...

What a day in Nepali politics!

-  The Maoist chose to fire the Chief of Army Staff, Rookmangud Katawal. Even though the government coalition party UML disagreed - as did almost the rest of the parliament.
-  Chief of Army Staff Katawal refused to acknowledge the dismissal.
-  The top generals held an informal meeting (without the new appointed Chief of Army Staff) and decided to put the army on high alert.
- UML, the government coalition party, withdrew from the government.

Picture of rally - from xinhuanet

There has been rallies several places in Kathmandu today with tyre burning and thousands of people showing their support for different sides of the conflict. But until know it seems like it has been peaceful.

But right now the major parties of the parliament are having a meeting without the Maoist, where the agenda is a resolution of censure. On the other hand the Maoists themselves have said they would step down if they didn't succeed in firing Katawal. So at the moment it seems like the Maoist will not be governing by tomorrow for one reason or another. But what the consequences of this will be is hard to say.

The Maoist's rhetoric is normally quite tough, and much tougher than their actions, so you are never sure of what to believe. But in his mayday speech, Finance Minister Baburam Bhattarei who is a leading figure in the party, said that if the Maoist would leave the government, they would call for a "second revolution". And as they still have around 20.000 armed troops that have been waiting in camps since the end of the civil war, the fear of a new uprising is quiet relevant.

One thing the day has shown so far, is that neither the army nor the parliament listens to the Maoists at the time being. This points to dangerous days ahead, as the Maoists still have a lot of support outside Kathmandu.